Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn 2 is the headliner tonight at the TD Garden in Boston.
Here's how I see the main card fight shaking out:
Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis
Fantastic match up here. Huge fan of these two fighters, so it's a hard one to call. Both fighters will look to finish when they smell blood in the water. Davis has the advantage on the feet, but Nate's chin should keep him awake long enough to triangle Davis in the second round. Davis' BJJ has been steadily improving, but he hasn't had to deal someone with Nate's bottom game. Marcus loves to throw the heavy bombs while sitting in guard...when he misses, Nate will throw the leg over and sink it in.
Lightweight bout: Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
Ken-Flo is a local Boston guy and SHED favorite. IMO Kenny is the number two lightweight in the world and that should be obvious after tonight. Gray is a dominate wrestler..Sherk 2.0...we all know that Kenny had trouble with Sherk's wrestling but Kenny has worked hard to work on his wrestling and we think he'll be able to defend the take-downs enough to pick Maynard apart with crisp striking. If he can take Gray down...it's all over. Kenny's BJJ is crazy aggressive and I can't recall ever seeing Gray on his back. If he doesn't cover up, he get "HELL-Bowed" until he gives up his back for a RN Choke in the second round.
Middleweight bout: Brazil Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda
Don't know much about Miranda, but it's a safe bet that the UFC will be feeding Maia someone who isn't a strong striker. After his performance against the Spider, they'll look to match him up with someone who thinks they have a chance with Maia on the ground....and we all know that no one has a chance with Maia on the ground. This one will end 30 seconds after the fight hits the ground. Probably a few minutes into the first round.
Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. James Toney
Crazy!!!! What can you say...My sources...mostly third hand interviews and podcasts (so take it how you will) say Toney is not training at all!! Although we'll certainly see his MMA focused regimen featured in the in pay per view roll in.
Toney may be a great boxer, but he's only going to get one shot at this before Captain America double legs him and GNP's him until the ref stops it in the first round.
People are making a big deal about Toney's power with the 4 ounce gloves, but Randy trains with pro boxers and should be comfortable taking that kind of punch, at least if he closes the distance so he doesn't take a fully extended power shot to the chin. I think Toney will be the one who is surprised by getting hit with MMA gloves, elbows etc...Don't be surprised in Randy turns the tables and puts Toney's lights out.
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn
BJ in a romp. We know he always bounces back after a tough loss. Edgar is a great wrestler and has mastered the stick and move boxing style it takes to hang with the world's best before shooting for a take-down. However, I don't think BJ will mess around, trying to box his way to a win...as soon as he touches Frankie a bit with his boxing, he should look to take Edgar down and work for a quick submission in round 2.
That's it...the prelims are starting so got to go!!!
